Vaccine effectiveness against transmission of alpha, delta and omicron SARS-COV-2-infection, Belgian contact tracing, 2021-2022.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccine effectiveness against transmission (VET) of SARS-CoV-2-infection can be estimated from secondary attack rates observed during contact tracing. We estimated VET, the vaccine-effect on infectiousness of the index case and susceptibility of the high-risk exposure contact (HREC). METHODS: We fitted RT-PCR-test results from HREC to immunity status (vaccine schedule, prior infection, time since last immunity-conferring event), age, sex, calendar week of sampling, household, background positivity rate and dominant VOC using a multilevel Bayesian regression-model. We included Belgian data collected between January 2021 and January 2022. RESULTS: For primary BNT162b2-vaccination we estimated initial VET at 96% (95%CI 95-97) against Alpha, 87% (95%CI 84-88) against Delta and 31% (95%CI 25-37) against Omicron. Initial VET of booster-vaccination (mRNA primary and booster-vaccination) was 87% (95%CI 86-89) against Delta and 68% (95%CI 65-70) against Omicron. The VET-estimate against Delta and Omicron decreased to 71% (95%CI 64-78) and 55% (95%CI 46-62) respectively, 150-200 days after booster-vaccination. Hybrid immunity, defined as vaccination and documented prior infection, was associated with durable and higher or comparable (by number of antigen exposures) protection against transmission. CONCLUSIONS: While we observed VOC-specific immune-escape, especially by Omicron, and waning over time since immunization, vaccination remained associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2-transmission.

Duration of viral infectiousness and correlation with symptoms and diagnostic testing in non-hospitalized adults during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection: A longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 have relied on limited data on duration of viral infectiousness and correlation with COVID-19 symptoms and diagnostic testing. METHODS: We enrolled ambulatory adults with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and performed serial measurements of COVID-19 symptoms, nasal swab viral RNA, nucleocapsid (N) and spike (S) antigens, and replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 by viral growth in culture. We determined average time from symptom onset to a first negative test result and estimated risk of infectiousness, as defined by positive viral growth in culture. RESULTS: Among 95 adults, median [interquartile range] time from symptom onset to first negative test result was 9 [5] days, 13 [6] days, 11 [4] days, and >19 days for S antigen, N antigen, culture growth, and viral RNA by RT-PCR, respectively. Beyond two weeks, virus growth and N antigen titers were rarely positive, while viral RNA remained detectable among half (26/51) of participants tested 21-30 days after symptom onset. Between 6-10 days from symptom onset, N antigen was strongly associated with culture positivity (relative risk=7.61, 95% CI: 3.01-19.22), whereas neither viral RNA nor symptoms were associated with culture positivity. During the 14 days following symptom onset, the presence of N antigen remained strongly associated (adjusted relative risk=7.66, 95% CI: 3.96-14.82) with culture positivity, regardless of COVID-19 symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Most adults have replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 for 10-14 after symptom onset. N antigen testing is a strong predictor of viral infectiousness and may be a more suitable biomarker, rather than absence of symptoms or viral RNA, to discontinue isolation within two weeks from symptom onset.

The effect of variation of individual infectiousness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households.

Quantifying variation of individual infectiousness is critical to inform disease control. Previous studies reported substantial heterogeneity in transmission of many infectious diseases including SARS-CoV-2. However, those results are difficult to interpret since the number of contacts is rarely considered in such approaches. Here, we analyze data from 17 SARS-CoV-2 household transmission studies conducted in periods dominated by ancestral strains, in which the number of contacts was known. By fitting individual-based household transmission models to these data, accounting for number of contacts and baseline transmission probabilities, the pooled estimate suggests that the 20% most infectious cases have 3.1-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.2- to 4.2-fold) higher infectiousness than average cases, which is consistent with the observed heterogeneity in viral shedding. Household data can inform the estimation of transmission heterogeneity, which is important for epidemic management.

Low SARS-CoV-2 Cq values in healthcare workers with symptomatic COVID-19 infections, regardless of symptom severity, The Netherlands, January to August 2022.

We analysed SARS-CoV-2 PCR Cq values from 3,183 healthcare workers who tested positive between January and August 2022. Median Cq values were lower in symptomatic than in asymptomatic HCW. The difference in Cq values between HCW with mild vs moderate/severe symptoms was statistically significant but negligibly small. To prevent nosocomial infections, all symptomatic HCW should be tested irrespective of symptom severity. This information can support decisions on testing and isolation, in the context of ongoing pressure on healthcare systems.

A bias of Asparagine to Lysine mutations in SARS-CoV-2 outside the receptor binding domain affects protein flexibility.

Introduction: COVID-19 pandemic has been threatening public health and economic development worldwide for over two years. Compared with the original SARS-CoV-2 strain reported in 2019, the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529.1) is more transmissible. This variant has 34 mutations in its Spike protein, 15 of which are present in the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD), facilitating viral internalization via binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor on endothelial cells as well as promoting increased immune evasion capacity. Methods: Herein we compared SARS-CoV-2 proteins (including ORF3a, ORF7, ORF8, Nucleoprotein (N), membrane protein (M) and Spike (S) proteins) from multiple ancestral strains. We included the currently designated original Variant of Concern (VOC) Omicron, its subsequent emerged variants BA.1, BA2, BA3, BA.4, BA.5, the two currently emerging variants BQ.1 and BBX.1, and compared these with the previously circulating VOCs Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta, to better understand the nature and potential impact of Omicron specific mutations. Results: Only in Omicron and its subvariants, a bias toward an Asparagine to Lysine (N to K) mutation was evident within the Spike protein, including regions outside the RBD domain, while none of the regions outside the Spike protein domain were characterized by this mutational bias. Computational structural analysis revealed that three of these specific mutations located in the central core region, contribute to a preference for the alteration of conformations of the Spike protein. Several mutations in the RBD which have circulated across most Omicron subvariants were also analysed, and these showed more potential for immune escape. Conclusion: This study emphasizes the importance of understanding how specific N to K mutations outside of the RBD region affect SARS-CoV-2 conformational changes and the need for neutralizing antibodies for Omicron to target a subset of conformationally dependent B cell epitopes.

SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance and viral load kinetics in young children (1-6 years) compared to adults: Results of a longitudinal study in Germany.

Objective: To investigate SARS-COV-2 viral clearance and viral load kinetics in the course of infection in children aged 1-6 years in comparison with adults. Methods: Prospective cohort study of infected daycare children and staff and their close contacts in households from 11/2020 to 06/2021. Adult participants took upper respiratory tract specimen from themselves and/or their children, for PCR tests on SARS-CoV-2. Data on symptoms and exposure were used to determine the date of probable infection for each participant. We determined (a) viral clearance, and (b) viral load dynamics over time. Samples were taken from day 4-6 to day 16-18 after diagnosis of the index case in the respective daycare group (5 samples per participant). Results: We included 40 children (1-6 years) and 67 adults (18-77 years) with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Samples were available at a mean of 4.3 points of time per participant. Among the participants, the 12-day study period fell in different periods within the individual course of infection, ranging from day 5-17 to day 15-26 after assumed infection.Children reached viral clearance at a median of 20 days after assumed infection (95% CI 17-21 days, Kaplan-Meier Analysis), adults at 23 days (95% CI 20-25 days, difference not significant). In both children and adults, viral load decreased over time with trajectories of the mean viral load not being statistically different between groups. Kaplan-Meier calculations show that from day 15 (95% CI 13-15), 50% of all participants had a viral load <1 million copies/ml, i.e. were no longer infectious or negative. Conclusion: Children aged 1-6 and adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 (wild type and Alpha variant) did not differ significantly in terms of viral load kinetics and time needed to clear the virus. Therefore, containment measures are important also in the daycare settings as long as the pandemic continues.

Low infectious risk of re-positive COVID-19 patients: a single-center study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the infectiousness of re-positive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: All nucleic acid testing (NAT) was performed using throat swabs, nasopharyngeal swabs, and anal swabs, which were tested by Fluorescent quantitative realtime PCR. Re-positive cases were defined as a discharged patient who re-tested positive by NAT. Micro-neutralization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was performed based on the methods for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) viruses. IgM and IgG against the N protein of SARS-CoV-2 were determined by ELISA. RESULTS: A total 255 (16.04%) of 1590 COVID-19 patients were re-positive. The re-positive cases were more likely to occur in patients in the 20-39 years age group and in patients with disease of moderate severity. Quantitative PCR showed that cycle threshold (Ct) values and viral loads were both far lower than in the hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The viral load in re-positive cases was very low. Viral culture of the samples from re-positive patients showed no cytopathic effect, and NAT of the culture medium of viral cultures all exhibited negative results. CONCLUSION: The viral load in re-positive cases was very low; patients were not infectious and the risk of human-to-human transmission was extremely low. Discharged COVID-19 patients should undergo home health management for 3 weeks.

Evaluation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Nucleocapsid Antigen in the Blood as a Diagnostic Test for Infection and Infectious Viral Shedding.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen can be detected in plasma, but little is known about its performance as a diagnostic test for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection or infectious viral shedding among nonhospitalized individuals. Methods: We used data generated from anterior nasal and blood samples collected in a longitudinal household cohort of SARS-CoV-2 cases and contacts. Participants were classified as true positives if polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for SARS-CoV-2 and as true negatives if PCR negative and seronegative. Infectious viral shedding was determined by the cytopathic effect from viral culture. Stratified by 7 days after symptom onset, we constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to describe optimized accuracy (Youden index), optimized sensitivity, and specificity. Results: Of 80 participants, 58 (73%) were true positives while 22 (27%) were true negatives. Using the manufacturer's cutoff of 1.25 pg/mL for evaluating infection, sensitivity was higher from 0 to 7 days (77.6% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 64%-88.2%]) than from 8 to 14 days (43.2% [95% CI, 31.1%-54.5%]) after symptom onset; specificity was unchanged at 100% (95% CI, 88.1%-100%). This test had higher sensitivity (100% [95% CI, 88.4%-100%]) and lower specificity (65% [95% CI, 40.8%-84.6%]) for infectious viral shedding as compared with infection, particularly within the first week of symptom onset. Although the presence of N-antigen correlated with infectious viral shedding (r = 0.63; P < .01), sensitivity still declined over time. Additional cutoffs from ROC curves were identified to optimize sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions: We found that this SARS-CoV-2 N-antigen test was highly sensitive for detecting early but not late infectious viral shedding, making it a viable screening test for community-dwelling individuals to inform isolation practices.

Dynamics of viral shedding during ancestral or Omicron BA.1 SARS-CoV-2 infection and enhancement of pre-existing immunity during breakthrough infections.

Omicron variant is circulating in the presence of a globally acquired immunity unlike the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 isolate. Herein, we investigated the normalized viral load dynamics and viral culture status in 44 fully vaccinated healthcare workers (HCWs) infected with the Omicron BA.1 variant. Viral load dynamics of 38 unvaccinated HCWs infected with the 20A variant during the first pandemic wave was also studied. We then explored the impact of Omicron infection on pre-existing immunity assessing anti-RBD IgG levels, neutralizing antibody titres against 19A, Delta and Omicron isolates, as well as IFN-γ release following cell stimulation with SARS-CoV-2 peptides. We reported that two weeks after diagnosis a greater proportion of HCWs infected with 20A (78.9%, 15/19) than with Omicron BA.1 (44.7%, 17/38; p = 0.02) were still positive by RT-qPCR. We found that Omicron breakthrough infections led to an overall enhancement of vaccine-induced humoral and cellular immunity as soon as a median [interquartile range] of 8 [7-9] days post symptom onset. Among samples with similar high viral loads, non-culturable samples exhibited higher neutralizing antibody titres and anti-RBD IgG levels than culturable samples. Additionally, Omicron infection led to an enhancement of antibodies neutralization capacity against other SARS-CoV-2 isolates. Taken together, the results suggest that Omicron BA.1 vaccine breakthrough infection is associated with a faster viral clearance than that of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2, in addition this new variant leads to a rapid enhancement of the humoral response against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants, and of the cellular response.

RELIABILITY METHODS FOR ANALYZING COVID-19 PANDEMIC SPREADING BEHAVIOR, LOCKDOWN IMPACT AND INFECTIOUSNESS

In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the globalized world. Restrictions on public life and lockdowns of different characteristics define life in many countries. This paper focuses on the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (01-28-2020 to 01-15-2021). As a transfer of methods used in reliability engineering for analyzing the occurrence of infection, Weibull distribution models are used to evaluate the spreading behavior of COVID-19. Key issues of this study are the differences in spreading behavior in the first and second pandemic phase and the various impacts of lockdown measures with different characteristics (hard, light). Therefore, the occurrence of infection in normed time periods with and without lockdown measures are analyzed in detail on the example of Germany representing the spreading behavior in Europe. Additional information in comparison to classical infection analyzes models like the SIR model is generated by the application of Weibull distribution models with easily interpretable parameters and the dynamic development of COVID-19 is outlined. In a further step, the occurrence of infection of COVID-19 is put into the context of other common infectious diseases in Germany like Influenza or Norovirus to evaluate the infectiousness. Differences in the spreading behavior of COVID-19 in comparison to these well-known infectious diseases are underlined for different pandemic phases. © ESREL 2021. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore.

Clinical Course of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Adults with ESKD Receiving Outpatient Hemodialysis.

Background: Patients with ESKD on maintenance dialysis receive dialysis in common spaces with other patients and have a higher risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infections. They may have persistently or intermittently positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests after infection. We describe the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the serologic response in a convenience sample of patients with ESKD to understand the duration of infectivity. Methods: From August to November 2020, we enrolled patients on maintenance dialysis with SARS-CoV-2 infections from outpatient dialysis facilities in Atlanta, Georgia. We followed participants for approximately 42 days. We assessed COVID-19 symptoms and collected specimens. Oropharyngeal (OP), anterior nasal (AN), and saliva (SA) specimens were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, using RT-PCR, and sent for viral culture. Serology, including neutralizing antibodies, was measured in blood specimens. Results: Fifteen participants, with a median age of 58 (range, 37‒77) years, were enrolled. Median duration of RT-PCR positivity from diagnosis was 18 days (interquartile range [IQR], 8‒24 days). Ten participants had at least one, for a total of 41, positive RT-PCR specimens ≥10 days after symptoms onset. Of these 41 specimens, 21 underwent viral culture; one (5%) was positive 14 days after symptom onset. Thirteen participants developed SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, 11 of which included neutralizing antibodies. RT-PCRs remained positive after seroconversion in eight participants and after detection of neutralizing antibodies in four participants; however, all of these samples were culture negative. Conclusions: Patients with ESKD on maintenance dialysis remained persistently and intermittently SARS-CoV-2-RT-PCR positive. However, of the 15 participants, only one had infectious virus, on day 14 after symptom onset. Most participants mounted an antibody response, including neutralizing antibodies. Participants continued having RT-PCR-positive results in the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, but without replication-competent virus detected.

Vaccine effectiveness against onward transmission of SARS-CoV2-infection by variant of concern and time since vaccination, Belgian contact tracing, 2021.

BACKGROUND: During the first half of 2021, we observed high vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV2-infection. The replacement of the alpha-'variant of concern' (VOC) by the delta-VOC and uncertainty about the time course of immunity called for a re-assessment. METHODS: We estimated VE against transmission of infection (VET) from Belgian contact tracing data for high-risk exposure contacts between 26/01/2021 and 14/12/2021 by susceptibility (VEs) and infectiousness of breakthrough cases (VEi) for a complete schedule of Ad26.COV2.S, ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273 as well as infection-acquired and hybrid immunity. We used a multilevel Bayesian model and adjusted for personal characteristics (age, sex, household), background exposure, calendar week, VOC and time since immunity conferring-event. FINDINGS: VET-estimates were higher for mRNA-vaccines, over 90%, compared to viral vector vaccines: 66% and 80% for Ad26COV2.S and ChAdOx1 respectively (Alpha, 0-50 days after vaccination). Delta was associated with a 40% increase in odds of transmission and a decrease of VEs (72-64%) and especially of VEi (71-46% for BNT162b2). Infection-acquired and hybrid immunity were less affected by Delta. Waning further reduced VET-estimates: from 81% to 63% for BNT162b2 (Delta, 150-200 days after vaccination). We observed lower initial VEi in the age group 65-84 years (32% vs 46% in the age group 45-64 years for BNT162b2) and faster waning. Hybrid immunity waned slower than vaccine-induced immunity. INTERPRETATION: VEi and VEs-estimates, while remaining significant, were reduced by Delta and waned over time. We observed faster waning in the oldest age group. We should seek to improve vaccine-induced protection in older persons and those vaccinated with viral-vector vaccines.

From more testing to smart testing: data-guided SARS-CoV-2 testing choices, the Netherlands, May to September 2020.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assays are more sensitive than rapid antigen detection assays (RDT) and can detect viral RNA even after an individual is no longer infectious. RDT can reduce the time to test and the results might better correlate with infectiousness.AimWe assessed the ability of five RDT to identify infectious COVID-19 cases and systematically recorded the turnaround time of RT-PCR testing.MethodsSensitivity of RDT was determined using a serially diluted SARS-CoV-2 stock with known viral RNA concentration. The probability of detecting infectious virus at a given viral load was calculated using logistic regression of viral RNA concentration and matched culture results of 78 specimens from randomly selected non-hospitalised cases. The probability of each RDT to detect infectious cases was calculated as the sum of the projected probabilities for viral isolation success for every viral RNA load found at the time of diagnosis in 1,739 confirmed non-hospitalised COVID-19 cases.ResultsThe distribution of quantification cycle values and estimated RNA loads for patients reporting to drive-through testing was skewed to high RNA loads. With the most sensitive RDT (Abbott and SD Biosensor), 97.30% (range: 88.65-99.77) of infectious individuals would be detected. This decreased to 92.73% (range: 60.30-99.77) for Coris BioConcept and GenBody, and 75.53% (range: 17.55-99.77) for RapiGEN. Only 32.9% of RT-PCR results were available on the same day as specimen collection.ConclusionThe most sensitive RDT detected infectious COVID-19 cases with high sensitivity and may considerably improve containment through more rapid isolation and contact tracing.

Variation in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Bioaerosol Production in Exhaled Breath.

We developed a simple, noninvasive mask sampling method to quantify and sequence severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from exhaled breath. We found substantial variation between individuals in SARS-CoV-2 copies exhaled over a 15-minute period, which moderately correlated with nasal swab viral load. Talking was associated with a median of 2 log10 greater exhaled viral copies. Exposure varies substantially between individuals but may be risk stratified by nasal swab viral load and whether the exposure involved conversation.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness.

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread.

Prolonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75% and 32% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.

[COVID-19: epidemiology and mutations : An update]. / COVID-19: Epidemiologie und Mutationen : Ein Update.

Mutations of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can enhance the spread and the infectiousness and decrease the protective effect of antibodies present after infection, vaccination or antibody treatment. The alpha variant (B.1.1.7), first seen in Kent/United Kingdom, has increased the R­value and therefore the infectiousness by 75%; however, the effectiveness of the vaccines against SARS-CoV­2 available in Germany seems to be only slightly impaired by these mutations. In the case of the beta variant (B.1.351), first described in South Africa, the neutralization ability of antibodies towards SARS-CoV­2 is decreased. The monoclonal antibodies bamlanivimab and etesivimab, which are used therapeutically, are ineffective. The AstraZeneca vaccine offers almost no protection against mild or moderate disease caused by the beta variant. The gamma variant (P.1 or B.1.1.28.1), which was first found in Brazil, is probably 1.7-2.6 times more transmissible than previous virus strains circulating in Brazil. In addition to the infectiousness, the mortality risk of the gamma variant also seems to be increased between 1.2 and 1.9-fold in adults and between 5 and 8-fold in young persons. The delta variant (B.1.617), first described in India, is now dominant in most countries. It is 50% more infectious than the alpha variant, and the protective effect of vaccinations against symptomatic disease can be decreased (Biontech: delta variant 88%, alpha variant 93.7%; AstraZeneca: delta variant 67%, alpha variant 74.5%). Furthermore, the course of the disease with the delta variant is often more severe than with the wild type. Disease courses with the delta variant are less severe in vaccinated than in nonvaccinated persons, and fatal outcomes are substantially rarer. A high vaccination rate is essential in order to approach herd immunity and to bring the pandemic under control. Even where the protective effect towards mild or moderate disease is decreased, as a rule, vaccination still offers excellent protection against life-threatening and fatal disease courses.

On the relationship between serial interval, infectiousness profile and generation time.

The timing of transmission plays a key role in the dynamics and controllability of an epidemic. However, observing generation times-the time interval between the infection of an infector and an infectee in a transmission pair-requires data on infection times, which are generally unknown. The timing of symptom onset is more easily observed; generation times are therefore often estimated based on serial intervals-the time interval between symptom onset of an infector and an infectee. This estimation follows one of two approaches: (i) approximating the generation time distribution by the serial interval distribution or (ii) deriving the generation time distribution from the serial interval and incubation period-the time interval between infection and symptom onset in a single individual-distributions. These two approaches make different-and not always explicitly stated-assumptions about the relationship between infectiousness and symptoms, resulting in different generation time distributions with the same mean but unequal variances. Here, we clarify the assumptions that each approach makes and show that neither set of assumptions is plausible for most pathogens. However, the variances of the generation time distribution derived under each assumption can reasonably be considered as upper (approximation with serial interval) and lower (derivation from serial interval) bounds. Thus, we suggest a pragmatic solution is to use both approaches and treat these as edge cases in downstream analysis. We discuss the impact of the variance of the generation time distribution on the controllability of an epidemic through strategies based on contact tracing, and we show that underestimating this variance is likely to overestimate controllability.